Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965ad49ab60740b8415eec394cb8a53b7156eb797589bb97998f0451aa066fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof MOUZ, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed MOUZ | 57c | 4,897$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 4,198$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.44 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 2,736$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.36 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked MOUZ | 2c | 2,574$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ | 43c | 2,094$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.21 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 1,802$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.76 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 44c | 1,452$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.07 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,301$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.56 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,053$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.2 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 896.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 622.15$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed MOUZ | 6c | 560$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked MOUZ | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed MOUZ | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed MOUZ | 29c | 230.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…4a75backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 175.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 108.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked MOUZ | 63c | 103.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed MOUZ | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…8c74backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed MOUZ | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed MOUZ | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked MOUZ | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed MOUZ | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…28cebacked MOUZ | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.