TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof MOUZ, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06c0…e618backed MOUZ61c7,507$4,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,558.15761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Natus Vincere39c6,820$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,162.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed MOUZ60c5,921$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.8312256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.994645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed MOUZ46c4,543$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.0918452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Natus Vincere40c4,058$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.766854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere64c3,500$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf78e…0956backed MOUZ61c3,385$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked MOUZ36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed MOUZ3c2,563$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.611936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere39c2,350$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9819943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ11c2,342$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4730138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere46c2,094$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.992,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Natus Vincere69c2,000$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.8111960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked MOUZ62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.9920159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Natus Vincere58c1,853$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.1314947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked MOUZ61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere63c1,563$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.9185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90039936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d83…b76bbacked MOUZ1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked MOUZ39c1,375$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.968046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed MOUZ57c1,252$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.511253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere41c1,118$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.1111855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked MOUZ63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6308950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked MOUZ61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61012868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed MOUZ61c815.49$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.455540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere39c668.99$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.3777941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Natus Vincere40c645.9$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.427424.3%18 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere41c599.81$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.8949133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ45c591.86$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked MOUZ56c535.71$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2993655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Natus Vincere38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.328155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere70c509.23$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6234146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed MOUZ40c500.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2814244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked MOUZ2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed MOUZ61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3057047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Natus Vincere39c499.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere46c492.12$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.161,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfce…b388backed Natus Vincere40c485.75$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.451040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed MOUZ60c432.25$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked MOUZ61c427.54$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2604573.3%33 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24846535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Natus Vincere40c378$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.98543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Natus Vincere37c372.19$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.210833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed MOUZ62c358.73$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2246175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked MOUZ53c357.01$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1909544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed MOUZ60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011344.2%50 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked MOUZ62c322.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Natus Vincere38c304.53$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.8121350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1838037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed MOUZ37c270.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ61c245.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Natus Vincere41c242.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.56131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked MOUZ47c240$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.28748.3%42 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed MOUZ42c238.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Natus Vincere42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.18349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Natus Vincere40c234.8$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8813346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Natus Vincere40c233.52$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+160.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked MOUZ52c230$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.595137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere58c227.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.441,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Natus Vincere60c222.91$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3714948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Natus Vincere38c205.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.263545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…22aabacked Natus Vincere38c205.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Natus Vincere35c202.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere61c202$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1620361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12014251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5f…7fbfbacked MOUZ62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1244465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Natus Vincere52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3117342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ18c187.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Natus Vincere39c160.18$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.711450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfccc…c862backed MOUZ61c159.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed MOUZ24c159$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Natus Vincere40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Natus Vincere69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.935062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf0…4c25backed MOUZ31c130.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed MOUZ20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.73842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere41c119.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.993461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Natus Vincere64c107$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere37c105$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Natus Vincere39c102$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.563650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed MOUZ47c100.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.456334.9%22 W · 41 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed MOUZ30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017023.5%40 W · 130 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Natus Vincere39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614045%18 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed MOUZ31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1391…6b3fbacked MOUZ12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124231%13 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed MOUZ62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Natus Vincere40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.57226.4%19 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed MOUZ61c98.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed MOUZ58c97.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.294252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa856…3964backed MOUZ61c94.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa511…7c9abacked MOUZ63c90$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed MOUZ49c81.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.763925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Natus Vincere40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.44542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Natus Vincere39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.752356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.