Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96aec9dd7239ebf99cf0c9721526aa100292097d69b008ec0e5ec02ebdf56771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.99 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 3,146$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.69 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 1,097$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 12c | 925.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 17c | 854.61$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 22c | 605.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 23c | 602.97$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 12c | 470.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 75c | 259.38$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 22c | 201.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 22c | 201.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 22c | 201.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 22c | 201.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 200.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 22c | 184.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 22c | 184.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 141$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 74c | 107.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 22c | 63.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 22c | 48.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.