Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b9a010def6e45eddee82c84dc31c650984849ca83f6ab315e4197713c71b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 41c | 1,085$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.15 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 282.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 243$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 230.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 214$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 58c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 176.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 124.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 118.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 112.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…0c03backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 46.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 34.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 50c | 33.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 55c | 28.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 45c | 27.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 45c | 27.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 27.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 46c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 56c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 2?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.