Europa Conference League · resolved market
Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97028b387cba47f61bfd6e3deee6a1d588ea23f14fe46c4d2d6c8a607e3c9faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c55…4a8cbacked Over | 50c | 18,731$9,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,396.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…e800backed Under | 50c | 10,524$5,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,288.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 50c | 7,388$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,692.65 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 48c | 2,382$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 25c | 2,135$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.74 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 52c | 900.35$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.17 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Under | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Under | 51c | 608.04$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 337.23$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 317.69$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.12 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 76c | 257.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 252.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 241.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 67c | 194.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 68c | 172.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 71c | 165.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 50c | 163.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 50c | 148.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 142.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…0178backed Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 122.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 114.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 75c | 78.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 71.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…eaaebacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 52c | 39.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 52c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 33.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: Motherwell FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Motherwell FC (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Motherwell FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.