Europa Conference League · resolved market
Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca3577f43bd11a2620f681e19819e6964409511621cf8684d9e30d472f2d39d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 28c | 22,630$6,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,293.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 10,680$7,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,415.64 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 9,208$6,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,332.3 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 1,908$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.54 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Over | 42c | 1,781$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 1,686$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.13 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 1,161$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.82 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Over | 30c | 1,014$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 70c | 993.48$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.44 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 69c | 332$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 72c | 315$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 51c | 281.21$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 70c | 261.06$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.28 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 70c | 253.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 71c | 214.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 202.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 69c | 176$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 71c | 152.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 71c | 115.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 105.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…ec1bbacked Over | 43c | 91.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 32c | 78.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 51c | 77.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 240 | 49.2%118 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 69c | 51.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 70c | 50.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 40c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 72c | 43.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 29c | 38.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 51c | 35.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2688backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 48c | 23.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 63c | 23.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 55c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 69c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: Motherwell FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Motherwell FC vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Motherwell FC (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Motherwell FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.