NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x971c09a6ffa0d355812c9a1a8ddc0291b86a760374aaf35a32fd2d767be9e3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Over | 56c | 4,000$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 44c | 3,250$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Under | 58c | 2,719$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Over | 42c | 1,211$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Over | 42c | 875$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Over | 42c | 633$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 358.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 192.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 103.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Heat vs. LakersLakers won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.