NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8276b8f90ae652cc438794b476572d2509fa45a9eda60a175ba86d39eed4c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Over | 47c | 5,988$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +71%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…c144backed Under | 52c | 4,400$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…a2e9backed Under | 47c | 4,017$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…afbdbacked Over | 48c | 3,766$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Over | 48c | 3,617$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…3919backed Over | 53c | 3,581$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…c081backed Over | 53c | 3,472$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Under | 52c | 3,131$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…a29bbacked Under | 47c | 3,036$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,903$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…2934backed Under | 47c | 2,895$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2708backed Over | 48c | 2,891$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…ab06backed Over | 53c | 2,866$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…ddd6backed Over | 53c | 2,822$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…d06cbacked Under | 47c | 2,789$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Under | 52c | 2,762$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…ee41backed Over | 53c | 2,716$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d5…c40ebacked Under | 47c | 2,687$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Under | 53c | 2,421$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…3adebacked Over | 46c | 2,375$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Over | 48c | 2,276$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…6617backed Under | 52c | 2,257$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 1,790$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…917dbacked Under | 54c | 1,614$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…08a0backed Over | 53c | 1,598$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Under | 53c | 1,588$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…201cbacked Under | 47c | 1,398$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Under | 47c | 1,395$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…8a54backed Under | 49c | 1,389$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…0495backed Over | 53c | 1,365$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…2867backed Under | 47c | 1,315$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ec8ebacked Over | 53c | 1,284$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…de87backed Over | 51c | 1,244$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…b0d0backed Under | 47c | 1,242$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…b7f6backed Over | 53c | 1,240$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Over | 53c | 1,137$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…adc6backed Under | 54c | 1,023$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…930abacked Under | 49c | 1,014$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Under | 53c | 1,012$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…d595backed Under | 47c | 1,011$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 997.32$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…38c2backed Under | 47c | 982$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Under | 53c | 967$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…cc1fbacked Over | 51c | 928$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…7b46backed Over | 51c | 894$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…8a77backed Over | 46c | 888$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…5130backed Under | 54c | 825$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…7fffbacked Under | 49c | 808$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…78d1backed Under | 54c | 698$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…b69cbacked Over | 51c | 677$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…e2f5backed Over | 53c | 655$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…417fbacked Over | 46c | 635$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Over | 53c | 542$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ed77backed Under | 49c | 532$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Under | 47c | 511$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…e85dbacked Over | 46c | 262$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Under | 59c | 212.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 45c | 169$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 163$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…5e6bbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 47c | 98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7f…4843backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 43c | 51.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 48c | 41.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 40.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…9f25backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Heat vs. LakersLakers won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.