TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,616 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc10…3f05backed Lakers51c20,000$10,200 inWon+$9,8009650%48 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat50c17,000$8,500 inLost-$8,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Heat50c8,027$4,013 inLost-$4,013.3582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers52c7,944$4,131 inWon+$3,813.261,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat48c3,821$1,834 inLost-$1,834.111,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat48c3,049$1,477 inLost-$1,477.269,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Lakers52c2,000$1,040 inWon+$9607450%37 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Lakers51c1,919$979 inWon+$940.520055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x871f…7630backed Lakers53c1,886$999 inWon+$886.35650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Heat51c1,200$612 inLost-$61266744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lakers50c1,142$573 inWon+$568.692,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lakers49c1,045$512 inWon+$532.41,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Heat49c555$272 inLost-$271.9584150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Heat50c500$250 inLost-$25030351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Heat50c472.69$237 inLost-$237.4971052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Heat50c441.94$220 inLost-$22016837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Lakers52c384.62$200 inWon+$184.6265649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Lakers52c384.62$200 inWon+$184.625653.6%30 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lakers50c351.95$176 inWon+$175.972,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers50c328.57$164 inWon+$164.292,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lakers51c313.59$160 inWon+$153.6630053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Lakers53c283.02$150 inWon+$133.0224533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac71…d8cabacked Lakers52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Lakers52c171.6$89 inWon+$82.3734645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat51c133.33$68 inLost-$6813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Heat48c109.01$53 inLost-$52.8380148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed Lakers51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.0410250%51 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Lakers50c50$25 inWon+$253237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Lakers52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.0838545.7%176 W · 209 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat48c44$21 inLost-$21.126,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Lakers53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.7417456.9%99 W · 75 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Lakers53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.7411251.8%58 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Lakers53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.7410253.9%55 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Lakers51c25$13 inWon+$12.258957.3%51 W · 38 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers50c20$10 inWon+$1041848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe83…5c7fbacked Heat50c20$10 inLost-$102748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.