NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a170a0e78bb44021b553c0494962c8e59620d086743c0536ae9b2e974895087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lakers | 47c | 50,341$23,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,680.5 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 53c | 48,920$26,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,008.98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers | 49c | 20,237$9,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,304.86 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Heat | 54c | 6,726$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.44 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Lakers | 49c | 6,582$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.63 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Heat | 51c | 5,109$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.73 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heat | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 50c | 4,668$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Heat | 52c | 3,603$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.54 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…96b5backed Heat | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lakers | 46c | 2,750$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.2 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73ce…57b9backed Lakers | 48c | 2,600$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 46c | 2,148$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 52c | 2,141$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.4 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Heat | 54c | 2,007$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.57 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Heat | 51c | 1,455$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.05 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 51c | 1,140$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…870bbacked Lakers | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…15f1backed Lakers | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heat | 44c | 817$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…bdb5backed Heat | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…654abacked Heat | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Heat | 44c | 580$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Heat | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Heat | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…6874backed Lakers | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 53c | 482.45$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 50c | 364.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…23a3backed Heat | 55c | 273$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Heat | 54c | 238.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Lakers | 48c | 202$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 50c | 174.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Heat | 54c | 165$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Lakers | 48c | 158.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 52c | 158.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Lakers | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Heat | 53c | 145$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Heat | 52c | 132.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Heat | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…f3dbbacked Heat | 53c | 122.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…6fcabacked Heat | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Heat | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Lakers | 48c | 110.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 147 | 64.6%95 W · 52 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Lakers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Heat | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Heat | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Lakers | 48c | 87.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Lakers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Heat | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Lakers | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…077ebacked Lakers | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -13.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Heat | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heat | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Heat | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…a381backed Lakers | 47c | 42.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…9165backed Lakers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c7…bd01backed Lakers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Heat | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Lakers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Heat | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Heat | 53c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Heat | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Heat | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Heat vs. LakersLakers won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.