NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0247a4a65fc7b758a3719632410b32933796dadd7bba427769a4059728cd9996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $694,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $695,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 52c | 566,556$295,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295,277.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 137,112$65,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,386.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 48c | 109,648$52,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,439.79 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 48c | 90,000$43,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,800 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 54,153$26,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,836 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 49c | 20,373$9,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,390.23 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 20,100$9,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,452.3 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…6815backed Over | 49c | 16,327$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,326.53 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 48c | 5,322$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.64 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…8bf2backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 4,050$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…eaadbacked Over | 51c | 592.55$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 565.74$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 49c | 558.1$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.63 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 209$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 50c | 115.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 47c | 50.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…db3dbacked Under | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 45c | 40.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…7d6cbacked Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Over | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Heat vs. LakersLakers won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.