Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ajax vs. Frankfurt, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972eb7546ceb5213ab31357504c5568640da5c16d9f6b08f176daf65a2ea1f1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Frankfurtof Ajax, Frankfurt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Ajax | 13c | 3,329$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.81 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Ajax | 14c | 1,180$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Ajax | 16c | 626.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Ajax | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Frankfurt | 56c | 395.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Ajax | 14c | 364.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Ajax | 18c | 294.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…c7cabacked Ajax | 16c | 271$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Ajax | 43c | 231.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Ajax | 44c | 213.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706b…b0a6backed Frankfurt | 62c | 157.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…400abacked Ajax | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ajax | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Frankfurt | 53c | 114.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…8035backed Ajax | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…a519backed Ajax | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…274bbacked Ajax | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Ajax | 38c | 98.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…f42cbacked Ajax | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…da74backed Ajax | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…4c02backed Ajax | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…fb6bbacked Ajax | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…d042backed Ajax | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…28cbbacked Ajax | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…5535backed Ajax | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc083…0a9bbacked Ajax | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…9de8backed Ajax | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…1805backed Ajax | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…d980backed Ajax | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4a…b4b3backed Ajax | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…03cfbacked Ajax | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Frankfurt | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Ajax | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Frankfurt | 53c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…3fbebacked Ajax | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Ajax | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Frankfurt | 52c | 32.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Frankfurt | 49c | 25.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ajax vs. Frankfurt, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?this page
- AS Roma vs. Atlhletic Bilbao, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Atlhletic Bilbao won
- AZ Alkmaar vs. Tottenham Hotspur, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Tottenham won
- Bodo Glimt vs. Olympiakos, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Bodo Glimt won
- FCSB vs. Lyon, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Lyon won
- Fenerbahce vs. Rangers, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Rangers won
- Real Sociedad vs. Manchester United, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Man United won
- Viktoria Plzen vs. Lazio, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.