TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,562 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e70…0004backed Yes16c29,238$4,739 inLost-$4,738.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Yes3c6,079$182 inLost-$182.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,051$41 inLost-$40.894629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c2,307$55 inLost-$54.97300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd03…a3babacked Yes12c1,473$180 inLost-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f8…7448backed Yes4c1,058$47 inLost-$46.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes10c1,003$100 inLost-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c831$60 inLost-$59.91156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1110…e29fbacked Yes15c530$79 inLost-$78.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x935e…f456backed Yes8c500$40 inLost-$40120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No40c451.88$180 inWon+$272.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes61c312.87$191 inLost-$191.162133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c230$18 inLost-$17.9410517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$207222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98a…9e86backed Yes15c137.54$21 inLost-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f9…fdb9backed Yes12c125$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ce8…3352backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$11.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No40c100$40 inWon+$60.312040%8 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed No79c90.77$72 inWon+$18.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No80c50$40 inWon+$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c26.47$12 inWon+$14.8339116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.