South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975404bd4c0e30c324d346ea931f1efad8b5a986783c0b0e8c443cc7013beb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 17c | 60,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,199.94 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 1c | 2,959$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 2,949$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.57 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 2,597$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 13c | 2,424$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,412$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.41 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,596$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,502$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 1,171$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked Yes | 6c | 982.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 11c | 809.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 11c | 693.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 11c | 409.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 16c | 261.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519c…8ae9backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 5c | 239.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…9fd1backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 13c | 126.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 8c | 124.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 15c | 119.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 13c | 115.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3e21backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…3964backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 73.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-19?this page
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.