South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefec05f7e9dee699ea2c5e4adc41fd9595e33f401aef56b0fe0a328294090b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 20c | 15,000$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,755$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.53 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 1,690$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.38 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 1,644$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.92 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,400$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 14c | 968.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 74c | 675$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 75c | 661.33$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…8284backed No | 75c | 636$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 22c | 453.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…2239backed No | 75c | 357.39$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 79c | 207.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Yes | 25c | 201.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 200.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…74c8backed Yes | 26c | 187.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 39c | 185.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 76c | 178$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 173.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 17c | 149.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 11c | 145.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 13c | 95.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…b01fbacked No | 68c | 31.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 75c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 74c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.