Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x978f1f5a86c3afbbaebb692d1e89f56a5e5f99eb9c9a40ab4937d83271834c8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof PlayTime, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed 1win | 58c | 1,350$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.6 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed PlayTime | 42c | 865.78$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.65 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed PlayTime | 44c | 559.14$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed 1win | 56c | 547$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.68 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed 1win | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…2d49backed PlayTime | 53c | 379.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed 1win | 54c | 315.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked PlayTime | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PlayTime | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime | 46c | 217.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked 1win | 53c | 189.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PlayTime | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed 1win | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed PlayTime | 44c | 143.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed PlayTime | 46c | 108.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed PlayTime | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed 1win | 48c | 83.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…1c05backed PlayTime | 49c | 67.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed PlayTime | 42c | 62.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…30abbacked 1win | 52c | 61.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed 1win | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed PlayTime | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.