Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97978853c7f610dc1ac6f5e18b79c7c4c0b2a8ef6e894fa7674a84e7c86815b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,720$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.59 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 77c | 1,407$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.85 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…61cbbacked Under | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Over | 24c | 509.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 404$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 11c | 167.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 77c | 76.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 57.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 76c | 48.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 78c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.