TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Nantesof Racing Club de Lens, FC Nantes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e2…ce3cbacked FC Nantes57c49,603$28,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,329.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Racing Club de Lens21c11,910$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.076942%29 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Racing Club de Lens43c9,344$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,050.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Racing Club de Lens43c9,302$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005947.5%28 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Racing Club de Lens41c6,429$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.822745.8%104 W · 123 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked FC Nantes57c6,277$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked FC Nantes55c4,652$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.951850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Racing Club de Lens43c4,612$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked FC Nantes56c3,044$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.8516644.6%74 W · 92 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Racing Club de Lens43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2901338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Racing Club de Lens43c2,400$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0322259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed FC Nantes57c2,400$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.9830448%146 W · 158 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Racing Club de Lens43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Racing Club de Lens43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Racing Club de Lens43c2,043$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Racing Club de Lens44c2,012$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8881040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Racing Club de Lens45c1,783$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.35520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Racing Club de Lens44c1,601$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004139%16 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FC Nantes56c1,580$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.0824349.4%120 W · 123 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Racing Club de Lens42c1,386$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.781,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed FC Nantes56c1,137$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.463672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Racing Club de Lens13c1,099$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9326046.2%120 W · 140 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Racing Club de Lens43c1,007$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6618351.4%94 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Racing Club de Lens32c899.49$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.476132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Racing Club de Lens44c836.06$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3722020%4 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Racing Club de Lens43c799.95$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.62140%0 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed FC Nantes57c799.46$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked FC Nantes57c792.46$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.463154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Racing Club de Lens43c706.37$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.87149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Racing Club de Lens44c703.26$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.110145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed FC Nantes58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.663100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+343.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked FC Nantes57c579.99$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.426354%142 W · 121 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4af0…9996backed Racing Club de Lens31c532.26$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Racing Club de Lens45c529.22$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Nantes56c474.25$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20887344.3%387 W · 486 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Nantes66c357.61$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2933145%149 W · 182 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ce…356dbacked FC Nantes58c344.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Racing Club de Lens42c341.59$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.472466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Racing Club de Lens44c341$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0422927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Racing Club de Lens43c302.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Racing Club de Lens44c239$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1f…ab66backed Racing Club de Lens43c234.35$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Racing Club de Lens43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007343.8%32 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Racing Club de Lens43c232.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9812367.5%83 W · 40 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x344f…1a45backed Racing Club de Lens45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Racing Club de Lens45c209$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0527748.7%135 W · 142 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Racing Club de Lens43c203.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.493828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Racing Club de Lens43c185.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9112963.6%82 W · 47 L+12.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Racing Club de Lens43c174$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.827648.7%37 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked FC Nantes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.418247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61d…caddbacked FC Nantes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…e31dbacked Racing Club de Lens43c170.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Racing Club de Lens43c166.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Racing Club de Lens43c166$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.381040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f42…0524backed FC Nantes57c156.14$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed FC Nantes79c153.16$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Racing Club de Lens44c145.84$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644951%25 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Racing Club de Lens43c134.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.887632.9%25 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2af…3880backed Racing Club de Lens21c123.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc02a…b43fbacked Racing Club de Lens40c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x240c…4c62backed FC Nantes66c119.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e4…5134backed Racing Club de Lens42c116.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.441145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Racing Club de Lens43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FC Nantes55c113.91$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.261850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Racing Club de Lens33c100.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.325635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Racing Club de Lens45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458250%41 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked FC Nantes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4312039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Racing Club de Lens70c98.79$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.452254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Racing Club de Lens34c97.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.36755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Racing Club de Lens44c95.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Racing Club de Lens45c92.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Racing Club de Lens45c92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed FC Nantes22c91.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.38837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Racing Club de Lens43c91.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.297861.5%48 W · 30 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9605…a2c4backed FC Nantes78c89.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed FC Nantes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+59.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Racing Club de Lens25c85.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8517817.4%31 W · 147 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7291…78e2backed Racing Club de Lens43c84.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c7…5cecbacked Racing Club de Lens30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Racing Club de Lens31c78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.182254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Racing Club de Lens42c76.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1112556%70 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FC Nantes79c76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.968644.2%38 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Racing Club de Lens26c75.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.247648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…bd9ebacked FC Nantes57c70.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x467e…6e86backed FC Nantes56c66.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Racing Club de Lens43c64.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.764440.9%18 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Racing Club de Lens39c62.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7314352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Racing Club de Lens43c61.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Racing Club de Lens45c60.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.35251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Racing Club de Lens78c60.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.046642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Racing Club de Lens46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b24…4247backed Racing Club de Lens43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Racing Club de Lens18c54.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Racing Club de Lens43c52.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.368150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed FC Nantes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216850%34 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FC Nantes25c49.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4918847.9%90 W · 98 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Racing Club de Lens43c48.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2116…eb8fbacked FC Nantes29c48.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.373100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+469.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Racing Club de Lens43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Racing Club de Lens43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.