Tennis · resolved market
Segovia: Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x979d542919833d71b03d847cf2d3ce7bc85dbd75f904f3376d08a98e657134ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luka Pavlovicof Luka Pavlovic, Keegan Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Smith | 17c | 6,003$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.02 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith | 22c | 3,654$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Luka Pavlovic | 48c | 3,305$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Keegan Smith | 16c | 2,942$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…0552backed Keegan Smith | 53c | 2,789$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Luka Pavlovic | 70c | 1,700$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.07 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Luka Pavlovic | 78c | 1,618$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.82 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keegan Smith | 37c | 1,461$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.72 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Keegan Smith | 20c | 1,350$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.01 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Luka Pavlovic | 57c | 1,000$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.35 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Keegan Smith | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Keegan Smith | 54c | 950.36$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 846.92$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.83 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Keegan Smith | 28c | 787.12$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Keegan Smith | 13c | 781.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a7…1fdbbacked Keegan Smith | 55c | 584.13$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Keegan Smith | 54c | 556.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.33 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 543.6$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.11 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luka Pavlovic | 79c | 502.82$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb6…8b20backed Keegan Smith | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Keegan Smith | 55c | 423.64$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Keegan Smith | 31c | 412.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 374.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Keegan Smith | 54c | 358.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.61 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Luka Pavlovic | 45c | 357.53$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.93 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 314$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.42 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Luka Pavlovic | 72c | 280$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 241$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.31 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 213.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 201.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Luka Pavlovic | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Keegan Smith | 35c | 194.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Luka Pavlovic | 78c | 188.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Keegan Smith | 30c | 184.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Keegan Smith | 53c | 181.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Keegan Smith | 54c | 176$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Keegan Smith | 24c | 170.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Luka Pavlovic | 72c | 167.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…ff48backed Luka Pavlovic | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Keegan Smith | 19c | 152.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Keegan Smith | 9c | 152.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Keegan Smith | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Keegan Smith | 19c | 117.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Keegan Smith | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Luka Pavlovic | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Keegan Smith | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 95.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 88.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 86.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Keegan Smith | 24c | 85.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Keegan Smith | 17c | 84.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Luka Pavlovic | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Keegan Smith | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Luka Pavlovic | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Luka Pavlovic | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Keegan Smith | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Keegan Smith | 19c | 71.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…5d5fbacked Luka Pavlovic | 61c | 66.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Luka Pavlovic | 78c | 63.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Keegan Smith | 29c | 58.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Luka Pavlovic | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Keegan Smith | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Luka Pavlovic | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Luka Pavlovic | 63c | 42.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Luka Pavlovic | 80c | 42.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…86c0backed Keegan Smith | 49c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…a427backed Keegan Smith | 36c | 41.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Luka Pavlovic | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 37.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed Keegan Smith | 28c | 37.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Keegan Smith | 29c | 35.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…b70dbacked Luka Pavlovic | 48c | 31.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Luka Pavlovic | 48c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Luka Pavlovic | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f00…5396backed Luka Pavlovic | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e79…22e3backed Luka Pavlovic | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 117 | 56.4%66 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Luka Pavlovic | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Luka Pavlovic | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…a618backed Luka Pavlovic | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Luka Pavlovic | 79c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 169 | 64.5%109 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…c5a0backed Keegan Smith | 46c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Luka Pavlovic | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Luka Pavlovic | 76c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…9fd7backed Luka Pavlovic | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Segovia: Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smiththis page
- Set 1 Winner: Pavlovic vs SmithPavlovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.