TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Segovia: Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smith

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luka Pavlovicof Luka Pavlovic, Keegan Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Smith17c6,003$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.028,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith22c3,654$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.688,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Luka Pavlovic48c3,305$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.924,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Keegan Smith16c2,942$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.7411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bca…0552backed Keegan Smith53c2,789$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.042045%9 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Luka Pavlovic70c1,700$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.074,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Luka Pavlovic78c1,618$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.823,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keegan Smith37c1,461$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.728,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Keegan Smith20c1,350$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.011,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Luka Pavlovic57c1,000$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.359,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Keegan Smith20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010440.4%42 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Keegan Smith54c950.36$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.251,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Luka Pavlovic47c846.92$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.833,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Keegan Smith28c787.12$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.131,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Keegan Smith13c781.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.221,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a7…1fdbbacked Keegan Smith55c584.13$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Keegan Smith54c556.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.331,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Luka Pavlovic47c543.6$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.112,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Luka Pavlovic79c502.82$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.264,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eb6…8b20backed Keegan Smith10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506710.4%7 W · 60 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Keegan Smith55c423.64$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23345256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Keegan Smith31c412.91$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.842,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Luka Pavlovic46c374.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4963537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x428d…8cb6backed Keegan Smith54c358.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.614969.4%34 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Luka Pavlovic45c357.53$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.931,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Luka Pavlovic47c314$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.421,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Luka Pavlovic72c280$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Luka Pavlovic46c241$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.317,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Luka Pavlovic47c240$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.21,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Luka Pavlovic46c213.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2545751%233 W · 224 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Luka Pavlovic46c201.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5755941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Luka Pavlovic50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024452.5%128 W · 116 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Keegan Smith35c194.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.152,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Luka Pavlovic78c188.9$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.041,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Keegan Smith30c184.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Keegan Smith53c181.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.391,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a76…3c34backed Keegan Smith54c176$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Keegan Smith24c170.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3822335.4%79 W · 144 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Luka Pavlovic72c167.45$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4539648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b8…ff48backed Luka Pavlovic64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2510955%60 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Keegan Smith19c152.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0329149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Keegan Smith9c152.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Keegan Smith54c140$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.667848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Keegan Smith19c117.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0987741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed Keegan Smith54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014757.8%85 W · 62 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Luka Pavlovic51c103.92$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.923,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Keegan Smith55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Luka Pavlovic46c95.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.62,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Luka Pavlovic46c88.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7922547.1%106 W · 119 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Luka Pavlovic46c86.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Keegan Smith24c85.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6972147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Keegan Smith17c84.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.081,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Luka Pavlovic51c84.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.312,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x352b…abd8backed Keegan Smith50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016046.3%74 W · 86 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Luka Pavlovic56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.94,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Luka Pavlovic45c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.254,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Keegan Smith54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033551.9%174 W · 161 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Keegan Smith19c71.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4360452.5%317 W · 287 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Luka Pavlovic61c66.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.084665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Luka Pavlovic78c63.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.761,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Keegan Smith29c58.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0837547.2%177 W · 198 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Luka Pavlovic79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.592674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Keegan Smith50c46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2332329.7%96 W · 227 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Luka Pavlovic46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2360341.1%248 W · 355 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Luka Pavlovic63c42.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.781,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Luka Pavlovic80c42.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5130746.3%142 W · 165 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x583c…86c0backed Keegan Smith49c41.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49038.9%35 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4d…a427backed Keegan Smith36c41.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512748.8%62 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Luka Pavlovic60c39.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Luka Pavlovic47c37.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0846851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Keegan Smith28c37.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2314732.7%48 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Keegan Smith29c35.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2723530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…b70dbacked Luka Pavlovic48c31.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.162548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Luka Pavlovic47c31.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5318356.3%103 W · 80 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Luka Pavlovic48c30.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Luka Pavlovic55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.555941.9%234 W · 325 L-27.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f00…5396backed Luka Pavlovic47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e79…22e3backed Luka Pavlovic51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4111756.4%66 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Luka Pavlovic52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…d7b5backed Luka Pavlovic53c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2252552.4%275 W · 250 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…a618backed Luka Pavlovic79c24.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182572%18 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x007b…1fd2backed Luka Pavlovic79c24.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0616964.5%109 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea87…c5a0backed Keegan Smith46c23.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.733748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Luka Pavlovic64c23.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4217147.4%81 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Luka Pavlovic76c16.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9350268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae75…9fd7backed Luka Pavlovic80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.56248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.