Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97a1e757ab1303ad23f62289d9fe8acc5e8bf5380adbf21969299e6622bf1da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 3c | 1,498$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 751.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 24c | 303.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 238.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 23c | 222.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 24c | 204.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 198.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 57c | 177.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 9c | 173.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 173.58$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 35c | 159.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 14c | 139.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 138.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 134.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 111.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 104.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 34c | 103.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 21c | 102.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 97.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 31c | 95.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 91.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 90.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 20c | 84.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 81.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 21c | 78.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 78.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 76.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 75.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 27c | 74.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 72.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 69.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 63.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 61.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…7523backed Yes | 23c | 60.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 26c | 56.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 22c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 21c | 54.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 25c | 53.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 30c | 52.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 23c | 51.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…caf2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 49.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 24c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 44.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 32c | 44.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 38.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 38.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 35.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 36c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 64c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…6e0ebacked No | 74c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 77c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.