Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e2bed55a52d9797e85f6c6488e8bb901d4574b768aa4c56f143de0670f5c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 32c | 1,149$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 750.78$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.66 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 12c | 736.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 59c | 622.25$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.46 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 51c | 586.56$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.95 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 509.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 65c | 483.18$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 6c | 440$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 382.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 353.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 61c | 349.85$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 7c | 330.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 77c | 324.72$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 11c | 295.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 49c | 255.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 26c | 230.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 59c | 230$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 15c | 203.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 52c | 193.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 38c | 189.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 188.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 53c | 187.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 9c | 181.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 57c | 161.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 157$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 56c | 149.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 51c | 147.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 135.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 130.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 39c | 130.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 49c | 125.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 125.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 122.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 35c | 113.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 53c | 112.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 111.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 48c | 107.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 64c | 101.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 65c | 99.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 93.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 91.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 88.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 46c | 81.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 81.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 44c | 77.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 75c | 73.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 70.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 69.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 65.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 33c | 61.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 60.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 57.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 35c | 57.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 57.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 51c | 54.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 23c | 54.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 37c | 50.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 52c | 50.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 46.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 70c | 46.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 44.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 42.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 39c | 40.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 39.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 38.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…394dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 36c | 35.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 35.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 35.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 34.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 49c | 31.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.