NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Rams: O/U 54.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f34c552696d9020284431236e0e5615948abb227d765551391e737fff43ee2

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $103,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,784 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	49c	50,000$24,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,500	300	43.7%131 W · 169 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…e56abacked Over	54c	37,544$20,407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,136.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over	51c	33,666$17,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,496.55	168	60.7%102 W · 66 L	+18.7wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	40c	13,496$5,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,398.48	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	50c	10,000$4,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,950	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over	51c	5,450$2,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,675	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	+9.8wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	51c	3,333$1,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,633.17	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	49c	2,659$1,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,302.93	212	54.2%115 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under	49c	2,449$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	51c	1,334$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$653.66	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	50c	1,289$645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.5	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	1,116$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.84	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	49c	1,010$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.7	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over	51c	700$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Under	49c	600$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Under	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	47c	415.09$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.09	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Over	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	158	51.9%82 W · 76 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	137	52.6%72 W · 65 L	+10.9wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under	50c	300$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	52c	289$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.72	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	243	52.7%128 W · 115 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over	52c	210$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.8	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	176.96$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.4	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…b4b0backed Over	55c	126.6$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.6	58	69%40 W · 18 L	+7.7wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1acc…35b7backed Over	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	45c	54.48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b11…5568backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Under	49c	40.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	47c	37.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f89…f18bbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Over	53c	37.59$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.59	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Under	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ed…112bbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lions vs. Rams: O/U 54.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event