NFL · resolved market

Spread: Rams (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726c6857ed4a5acc23f1d3c085873b9f421e889c29df96e6181c6ac1e58ea46e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ramsof Rams, Lions
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $221,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $223,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,255 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Rams	47c	134,820$63,365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71,454.95	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Lions	53c	80,000$42,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42,400	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lions	53c	29,308$15,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,533.24	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…80c3backed Lions	53c	26,000$13,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,779.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rams	47c	22,338$10,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,877.98	249	57%142 W · 107 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rams	46c	15,976$7,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,607.06	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rams	47c	11,709$5,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,209.54	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Lions	54c	10,274$5,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,510	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Lions	53c	9,000$4,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,810	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Lions	55c	5,624$3,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,073.08	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Rams	45c	5,321$2,395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,926.8	142	48.6%69 W · 73 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lions	54c	5,000$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Lions	53c	4,717$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lions	53c	4,188$2,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,235.43	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	-10.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Lions	53c	2,500$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lions	51c	2,482$1,262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,262.08	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Lions	54c	2,154$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Rams	50c	2,001$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.78	200	39.5%79 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Lions	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rams	46c	1,075$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580.7	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lions	41c	1,034$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.14	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Lions	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-6.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rams	62c	950.08$585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.03	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5f…39c7backed Lions	53c	707.77$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.12	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Lions	54c	700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	187	44.9%84 W · 103 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Rams	48c	520.83$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.83	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Lions	53c	500$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.5	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lions	54c	499.5$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.73	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Rams	46c	471$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.34	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Lions	53c	426.42$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b37…d77fbacked Lions	53c	377.34$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Lions	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	61cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed Rams	48c	297.92$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.92	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+5.6wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lions	53c	294.97$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.3	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Lions	53c	283.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	193	61.7%119 W · 74 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Lions	54c	222$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.88	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Lions	55c	220$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Rams	47c	219.13$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.14	320	50.9%163 W · 157 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Lions	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x833e…f756backed Lions	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa14e…f856backed Lions	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Rams	47c	170$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.1	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Lions	38c	150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	+20.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Rams	45c	102$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.1	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Rams	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9efd…30babacked Lions	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rams	47c	85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.34	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x644c…f6c7backed Rams	47c	82$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…c16cbacked Lions	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2174…85f4backed Rams	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba0…a6afbacked Lions	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Rams	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f6…e5cabacked Lions	55c	40.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Lions	51c	39.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-8.0wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6127backed Lions	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c9…e67ebacked Lions	55c	36.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Lions	60c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Lions	54c	33.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Lions	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Lions	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Lions	55c	25.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Rams	45c	22.11$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.05	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rams (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event