Europa Conference League · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f6b574cbbef7ee507e389188f2a5cd63d3f6ccc1b2855ab1cbc2b5d0565f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 10c | 2,640$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 15c | 1,602$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.36 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 8c | 993.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 14c | 851.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 652.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.4 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Under | 5c | 426.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 12c | 268.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.12 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Under | 78c | 256.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4b24backed Over | 79c | 250.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 57c | 229.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 22c | 209.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 22c | 179.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad9…77c2backed Over | 75c | 130.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3339backed Over | 77c | 127.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…23f8backed Over | 78c | 126.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 21c | 112.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 111.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 22c | 82.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…240cbacked Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 47.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 74c | 37.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 26.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 76c | 23.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 72c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 18.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.