Europa Conference League · resolved market

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb486548d9385395aaf4025817ea3decefc4ed40d17f1980511b9e2177dac8a0f

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,889 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Under	48c	50,624$24,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,294.8	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+23%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	53c	18,945$9,952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,993.39	1,604	38.9%624 W · 980 L	-17.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	13,389$7,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,339.59	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	52c	2,171$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.75	146	54.1%79 W · 67 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	52c	2,171$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.75	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	52c	2,171$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.75	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over	52c	2,171$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.75	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	50c	2,155$1,074 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.98	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over	52c	1,629$841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$787.15	82	54.9%45 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over	52c	1,586$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$766.49	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	52c	933.85$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.25	109	56%61 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Over	65c	836.09$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.81	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	36c	809.65$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.9	130	40%52 W · 78 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under	27c	807.92$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.83	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Under	28c	573.89$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.57	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-10.4wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	29c	461.54$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.73	919	50.9%468 W · 451 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a8…2dedbacked Over	57c	428.36$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.83	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	41c	410.64$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.15	380	47.4%180 W · 200 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over	71c	410.53$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.05	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	45c	400$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.07	126	33.3%42 W · 84 L	-21.7wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-84.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over	71c	345.99$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.34	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36c4…b9c8backed Under	20c	252$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.40per pick	20cpaid	+200%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	80c	245.24$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.05	638	57.2%365 W · 273 L	+35.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Over	51c	221.68$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.62	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-4.4wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6628…9164backed Under	35c	215.76$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over	52c	212.78$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.6	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over	61c	209.18$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.18	147	67.3%99 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Over	71c	199.29$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.79	33	81.8%27 W · 6 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	70cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over	52c	186.77$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.65	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Over	71c	180.8$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.43	24	87.5%21 W · 3 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	73cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x550d…f1ffbacked Under	44c	180.75$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.24	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over	54c	180.07$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.83	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0082…e801backed Over	54c	179.02$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.76	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd162…72aabacked Over	56c	173.86$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over	57c	170.91$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.49	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…720fbacked Under	41c	159.17$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.42	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	20c	142.8$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	335	22.4%75 W · 260 L	-43.5wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over	71c	138.39$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.13	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Over	53c	131.6$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.43	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Over	75c	131.21$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.71	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	38c	110$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.32	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-12.0wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Over	53c	108.62$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.05	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+4.6wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Under	28c	105.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.65	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	72c	101.16$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.33	433	44.6%193 W · 240 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	28c	100.16$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	2,167	37.6%815 W · 1,352 L	+5.7wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3a…23f8backed Over	60c	96.98$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.41	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	42c	96.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.89	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over	77c	95.65$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	132	56.8%75 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over	53c	91.79$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…c5afbacked Under	27c	89.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	29c	88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	1,573	55.7%876 W · 697 L	+25.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b1…fd38backed Over	58c	84.03$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d08…3f86backed Over	60c	80.65$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.3	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed Over	52c	72.75$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over	70c	70.69$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.21	200	56.5%113 W · 87 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	71c	69.2$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	70	54.3%38 W · 32 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…1a89backed Over	71c	69.2$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over	71c	69.2$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+4.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over	52c	69.03$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.27	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	50c	65$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	239	49.4%118 W · 121 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	61c	63.8$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.95	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x450f…9479backed Over	49c	62$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.62	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4359…1260backed Over	56c	60.63$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.55	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-26%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa070…c103backed Over	71c	51.21$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Under	30c	47.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	38	78.9%30 W · 8 L	+8.4wins	+0.22per pick	57cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over	52c	46.69$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over	52c	46.69$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	48c	40.3$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.96	377	50.9%192 W · 185 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	54c	35.72$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over	61c	33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	53c	30.26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.14	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Over	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over	71c	29.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	60c	29.49$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.72	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea77…686ebacked Over	71c	27.68$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a5…37a5backed Over	71c	27.68$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	80c	24.7$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	783	44.8%351 W · 432 L	+13.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6317…9c45backed Over	71c	20.76$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…08a7backed Over	76c	19.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.73	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+29%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5this page
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event