Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621d8ff7b5d784a1b34039fded4304291fa6192302d5a728b7fee40da1512695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villa FCof Aston Villa FC, Bologna FC 1909
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Aston Villa FC | 22c | 4,825$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,755.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bologna FC 1909 | 77c | 3,471$2,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.78 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Aston Villa FC | 22c | 1,907$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Aston Villa FC | 20c | 1,555$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +113%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 1,123$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 1,036$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 1,010$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Aston Villa FC | 23c | 830.94$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Aston Villa FC | 20c | 824.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 572.69$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 557.39$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.59 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Aston Villa FC | 71c | 510.26$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad9…77c2backed Aston Villa FC | 33c | 494.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 490.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.45 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa FC | 21c | 456.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.32 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Aston Villa FC | 20c | 412$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Bologna FC 1909 | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Aston Villa FC | 24c | 381.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.02 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 372.24$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Aston Villa FC | 21c | 302.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.72 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Aston Villa FC | 21c | 226.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Aston Villa FC | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Aston Villa FC | 22c | 200.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 197.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Aston Villa FC | 20c | 195.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 187.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 169.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 69c | 152.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 135.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 122.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Aston Villa FC | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Aston Villa FC | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 66.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 61.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 61.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 59.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Aston Villa FC | 25c | 58.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 52.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 50.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Aston Villa FC | 23c | 47.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Aston Villa FC | 32c | 43.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…0e52backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 40.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Aston Villa FC | 28c | 36.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Aston Villa FC | 28c | 36.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 31.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 31.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 23.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…31a0backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 22.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 20.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…5776backed Bologna FC 1909 | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.