Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97fc99e9916d0cdce69f1431a8aaf36a808d2096e3e857636aa6296fe3a4d694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 79c | 621.04$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 51c | 383.13$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.56 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 15c | 299.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 169.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 146.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 34c | 121.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 64.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked Yes | 44c | 52.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 51.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 48c | 49.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 33c | 48.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 46.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 44.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 57c | 43.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 40.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 37.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed Yes | 50c | 36.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…36e5backed Yes | 46c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 51c | 28.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.