Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8c02d6d796d49e04624ca1ce0bd9c64e681e5f4460b8ee82504613bf00a20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 17c | 730.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.5 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 14c | 572.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 11c | 497.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 20c | 307.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 282.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 80c | 222.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 172.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 51c | 152.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 9c | 135.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 7c | 135.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 128.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 123.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 100.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 81.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 80.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 80.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 79.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 17c | 78.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 18c | 74.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 64.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 62.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 56.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 56.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 57c | 45.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 43.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 70c | 43.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 32.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 77c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 61c | 23.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 16.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 16.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.