Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98019a5d2eeb40bf628e6f3c0394ca85d1156c2a9835981313097ba4820c538d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 400$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 50c | 313.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 311.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 310.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 289.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 209.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 202.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 169.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 63c | 157.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 155.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 134.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 118.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 106.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 99.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…1533backed Yes | 44c | 91.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 90.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 89.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 84.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 35c | 77.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 77.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 68.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 63.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 61.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 57c | 55.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 54.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 52.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 49.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 50c | 47.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 45.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 42.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 51c | 41.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 39.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 39.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 59c | 38.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 37.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 35.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 35c | 30.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 28.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 50c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 62c | 26.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 59c | 16.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.