Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c79c791baf59e62d3b0716645dd0d66e5073547c42eacd7a62623b89901674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 39c | 1,209$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.37 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 990.12$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 11c | 707.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 19c | 563.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 365.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.62 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 334.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.58 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 62c | 216$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 194.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 8c | 174.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 156$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 155.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 65c | 154.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 135.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 120.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 39c | 119.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d708backed Yes | 38c | 117.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 117.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 115.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 111.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 97.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 94.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 14c | 87.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 66.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…1533backed Yes | 32c | 63.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 62.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…6593backed No | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 55.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 55.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 52.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 71c | 51.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 60c | 49.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 49.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 49.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 21c | 49.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 44.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 43.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 42.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 39.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 38.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 38.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 30.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 25.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 75c | 24.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.