Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980780fabeaa5f4d835783310d7b7f10bdbbd15be67f670427fa8064e6f9e4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 9c | 800$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 511.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 335.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 8c | 275.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 13c | 275.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 249.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd18…d344backed Yes | 21c | 246.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 11c | 237.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 8c | 232.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 194.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 14c | 143.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 9c | 127.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 8c | 126.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 102.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6085…dff5backed Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth March 7-14?this page
- Will Trump post 100-109 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 110-119 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 120-129 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 130-139 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14?Yes won
- Will Trump post 50-59 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 60-69 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 70-79 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 80-89 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 90-99 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post less than 50 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.