Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c342d591d673beea6313a5c9d1614a5aafc7a12ef641d45231238a8ec381bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,581$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.57 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 12c | 3,306$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 61c | 1,528$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.99 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,158$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.76 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 35c | 553.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.87 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 517.9$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 38c | 392.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.51 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 66c | 299.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 35c | 281.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.82 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…6013backed Yes | 36c | 207.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…4f0abacked Yes | 50c | 200.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 54c | 199.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 65c | 155.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 62c | 143.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 25c | 132.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 120.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 59c | 119.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 29c | 114.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 68c | 104.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 102.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 23c | 99.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 79.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked No | 68c | 70.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 29c | 64.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 75c | 53.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 53.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 54c | 52.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…bd36backed Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…0caabacked No | 68c | 47.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…212ebacked Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…9faebacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…b92abacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…401fbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14?this page
- Will Trump post 100-109 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 110-119 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 120-129 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 130-139 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 140-149 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 50-59 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 60-69 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 70-79 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 80-89 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post 90-99 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
- Will Trump post less than 50 times on Truth March 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.