MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9824b0fa20acf6f996e9861a65e004afda0f7e390c3d4880dcf605c6fcc33416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 49c | 31,309$15,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,287.29 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 13,295$6,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,577.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 8,438$4,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,134.58 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 7,644$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,821.82 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 6,004$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 5,073$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.56 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 3,822$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 3,271$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 3,266$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.34 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 48c | 2,032$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.21 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 51c | 1,215$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.56 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,200$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 999.99$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.73 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 49c | 879.98$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 687$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 682.45$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.02 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 641$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.09 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 26c | 586.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 518.94$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 129.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 50c | 101.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 50c | 93.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…bd71backed Over | 49c | 91.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 86.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 51c | 68.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Over | 49c | 68.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Under | 55c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 50c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…18a2backed Over | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 49c | 48.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 43c | 37.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Over | 49c | 32.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Under | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 52c | 24.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 51c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 52c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago CubsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.