MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaddd72a2f7ba2f1e5c9e734d3993ad87176e47745a0674aaf0a83918417fad4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Chicago Cubs, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 9,246$4,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,993.03 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 46c | 9,228$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,982.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Athletics | 65c | 2,290$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.5 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 2,261$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 48c | 2,045$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.92 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 1,982$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.7 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Athletics | 44c | 1,457$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.81 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 53c | 1,009$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.93 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 613.45$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.71 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 465.48$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Athletics | 46c | 443.74$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.62 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 65c | 270.84$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Athletics | 64c | 230.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 51c | 199.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 50c | 108.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 71.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 60.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 64c | 58.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 46.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 46.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Athletics | 45c | 39.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 39.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Athletics | 65c | 34.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 31.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 28.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Athletics | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 56c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 23.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -12.1wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 20.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…f0a9backed Athletics | 64c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Chicago CubsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.