Earnings · resolved market
Will Allbirds (BIRD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983ed3d4c663ac3447a0ed1bd43bdebaeffe4c375d8e80c05c86348a23773f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 2c | 2,561$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 70c | 1,563$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 25c | 660.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.32 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 24c | 550.52$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.18 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 74c | 255.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 26c | 241.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 229.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 71c | 210.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 14c | 147.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 80c | 125.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 125.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 62c | 91.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 39c | 73.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 58c | 68.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…9e16backed No | 45c | 48.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.