Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98580ead653011e4eca36c2b5155d93f1c71dd0b2d2c49715f5d62b928df54a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 59c | 528.17$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.43 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 54c | 371.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 73c | 356.24$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 45c | 192.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 45c | 192.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 150.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…fb14backed Yes | 41c | 106.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…9550backed No | 58c | 71.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ec…a385backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of March?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of March?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.