Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989f97c22cf22c3917ef712bc6e190357f386d92710fcb0e11d76dcb6c48b4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 1,340$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.51 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 868.88$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 456.01$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 415.78$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 345.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 320$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 311.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed Yes | 11c | 283.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 197.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 194.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 6c | 172.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 159.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 53c | 156.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 147.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 145.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 143.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 134.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 43c | 123.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 115.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 105.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 103.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 50c | 100.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 100.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 95.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 94.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 48c | 89.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 88.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 50c | 86.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 77.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 77.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 61c | 69.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 54c | 63.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 50c | 61.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 51c | 59.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 47.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 58c | 44.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 52c | 42.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 40.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 55c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 35.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 35.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 76c | 35.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 51c | 32.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 29.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 54c | 28.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…1d44backed Yes | 43c | 26.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 48c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 24.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 57c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.