Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b4377b9ea2593da69a38b9ef6e8d81a3dbe814ef9b939534f42060b5fe4af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 36c | 30,553$10,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,680.37 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Yes | 68c | 17,727$12,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,054.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 55c | 8,575$4,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,739.44 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 21c | 3,869$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.91 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 57c | 3,844$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.84 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 19c | 919.56$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 749.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 20c | 499.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 62c | 450$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 432$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 41c | 295.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 63c | 185.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 59c | 150.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked No | 48c | 84.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 26c | 76.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed No | 48c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked No | 74c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.