College Football · resolved market
Tulsa vs. New Mexico State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bd95c63c8ce960ae02115ea96e5ffef40928dd63229bac1fc96e8a32aafcc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico Stateof Tulsa, New Mexico State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Tulsa | 46c | 36,268$16,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,612.69 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New Mexico State | 43c | 22,677$9,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,831.48 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46f…2003backed Tulsa | 61c | 10,436$6,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,366.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked New Mexico State | 39c | 10,430$4,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.3 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…35d0backed New Mexico State | 80c | 9,998$7,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Tulsa | 44c | 6,092$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.86 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Tulsa | 61c | 2,648$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.41 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Tulsa | 38c | 2,642$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked New Mexico State | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed New Mexico State | 65c | 2,400$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.45 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked New Mexico State | 61c | 2,335$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…46a3backed New Mexico State | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tulsa | 59c | 2,000$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Tulsa | 34c | 1,763$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed New Mexico State | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New Mexico State | 38c | 1,536$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.33 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed New Mexico State | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed Tulsa | 4c | 959$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed New Mexico State | 39c | 900$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New Mexico State | 36c | 870.39$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.52 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State | 40c | 870$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.21 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed New Mexico State | 55c | 823.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.64 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked New Mexico State | 70c | 760$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Tulsa | 63c | 646.08$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.51 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed New Mexico State | 39c | 506$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.16 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Tulsa | 64c | 503$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.92 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tulsa | 37c | 502.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Tulsa | 62c | 452.9$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked New Mexico State | 37c | 440.01$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.21 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Tulsa | 33c | 438.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed New Mexico State | 39c | 356.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.78 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed New Mexico State | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked New Mexico State | 74c | 238.63$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked New Mexico State | 40c | 199.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked New Mexico State | 52c | 192.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tulsa | 52c | 191.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tulsa | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed New Mexico State | 38c | 171$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tulsa | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed New Mexico State | 40c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New Mexico State | 37c | 136.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed New Mexico State | 60c | 134.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New Mexico State | 38c | 132.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed Tulsa | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New Mexico State | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed New Mexico State | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Tulsa | 40c | 107.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Tulsa | 42c | 101.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed New Mexico State | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Tulsa | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Tulsa | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed New Mexico State | 38c | 83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked New Mexico State | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…2149backed Tulsa | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Tulsa | 61c | 56.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed New Mexico State | 55c | 44.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked New Mexico State | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Tulsa | 45c | 39.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked New Mexico State | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Tulsa | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…d13cbacked Tulsa | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Tulsa | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…5744backed Tulsa | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Tulsa | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…aef4backed New Mexico State | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tulsa vs. New Mexico Statethis page
- Spread: Tulsa (-3.5)New Mexico State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.