MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cb7f5cc730ef9f86dd3889064a9ec29fb40222754c1b47fc96f2a6e287a984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 2,216$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.65 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 2,089$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.37 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 14c | 2,012$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.88 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 1,995$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.69 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 1,934$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.43 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 1,424$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Angels | 3c | 545.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 471.89$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.19 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 295.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 176.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 154.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 150.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 138.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 120.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 111.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 110.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 108.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 85.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 74.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 63.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 58.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 49.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 42.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 41.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 39.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 29.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…1bafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.