MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c9d5d84f7bd802ad2eb3f1bbcab5c96a000fa9f925ee61e2b0702643e3e280b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Under | 54c | 7,152$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.92 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 46c | 7,126$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.6 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 4,131$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.42 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 2,674$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.13 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 2,233$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Under | 55c | 1,613$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 50c | 1,592$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.38 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 4c | 1,570$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 44c | 1,399$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.4 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 1,226$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.18 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 1,189$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 12c | 971.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Over | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.18 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 46c | 732.58$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.61 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 3c | 665.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +597.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 561.47$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.81 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 61c | 484.06$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.16 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 43c | 419.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.06 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 55c | 416.33$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.03 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 353.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 330$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 11c | 325$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 287.3$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 36c | 217.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 193.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 58c | 164.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 137.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 45c | 136.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 52c | 135.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 55c | 129.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 47c | 92.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Over | 29c | 91.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Under | 55c | 89.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 43c | 83.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 45c | 82.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 57c | 76.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 43c | 75.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 56c | 67.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 53c | 66.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 48c | 62.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 45c | 58.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 30c | 39.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 35.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…8b01backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 62c | 30.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 44c | 28.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…2c87backed Under | 45c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 45c | 27.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked Under | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…ccc9backed Under | 54c | 24.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked Under | 55c | 24.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.