Earnings · resolved market
Will Urban Outfitters (URBN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f047e8dbd64ab7ec2b55570ca05ef74379bd99c2518e0f161bafa8385384e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 27c | 669.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.78 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 5c | 434.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +625%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 63c | 197.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 25c | 153.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 23c | 113.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 26c | 109.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 108.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 26c | 75.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 71c | 70.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 78c | 60.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…a65ebacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 39c | 49.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 46.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 70c | 36.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 75c | 26.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f2…3098backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Yes | 75c | 24.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 19.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.