Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f83b28e89a61c26b29bd3ee3b8c6366aa02d99950717e810e096be26055797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 371.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 24c | 292.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 274.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 719 | 42%302 W · 417 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 56c | 181.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 156.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 146.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 26c | 144.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 142.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 140.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 51c | 111.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 398 | 39.4%157 W · 241 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 104.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 92.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 90.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 88.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 82.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 56c | 76.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 74.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 46c | 74.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 329 | 54.7%180 W · 149 L | +34.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 68.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 62.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 452 | 40.7%184 W · 268 L | +29.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 57.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 51.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 49.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 49.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 47.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 47.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 44.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 43.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 70c | 40.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 63c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…58d4backed No | 49c | 38.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 49c | 35.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 46c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…9b1bbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 27.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 26.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 25.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 53c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…7b1bbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 43c | 23.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 55c | 23.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.