TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,136 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8cd…0d51backed No3c3,871$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8023…cfd4backed No19c2,435$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.477338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes49c703.07$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.474,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes42c664.81$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.351,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No50c337.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes70c314.64$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes54c232.24$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.621250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c229.09$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.72,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes55c203.46$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes43c189.8$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.371,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes46c188.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No57c178.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes38c175.04$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c165.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes66c134.58$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.296894.1%64 W · 4 L+12.7wins+0.19per pick75cpaid+25.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c127.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.467,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes43c120$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c103$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.754,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No53c102.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.311,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No49c101.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c95.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked No66c93.32$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.424057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes42c83.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.95825.9%15 W · 43 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No59c77.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.222,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes44c74.94$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1247538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No52c74.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.921,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No49c71.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.838,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes39c71.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.423,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.135,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No18c64.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.91,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No58c59.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4950373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes39c59.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5924434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes45c54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c40…8ef9backed Yes75c51.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.851850%9 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c50.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.742,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c50.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c49.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No39c47.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No57c46.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No36c46.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.752,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.075,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No57c44.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes48c44.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.982,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes38c42.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c41.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d1…7ee8backed Yes39c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+228.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No33c38.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes39c38.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.075358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes32c35.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0828649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No59c32.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No46c32.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.682,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No61c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes58c30.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.962,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0172…92aebacked Yes50c30.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3947569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes59c29.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No66c28.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No55c26.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3520438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb085…cde9backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes62c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes44c24.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.777452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No48c24.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No52c23.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0931454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No50c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.499159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No67c22.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7430168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c21.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.314,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c20.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.949573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa614…6ef7backed No62c19.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf39…b050backed No60c18.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312560%15 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No61c18.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c17.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.693,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.