Fifa International · resolved market
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990e44dd14febcc2ce3622bdb01a04665d508a2598f6a627cbd81414142315e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 50c | 586.24$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 583.82$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 52c | 539.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.79 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Over | 49c | 405.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 24c | 342$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 50c | 310.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.27 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 49c | 295.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 293$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…ed7ebacked Under | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 188.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Under | 49c | 184.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Over | 48c | 173.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 171 | 45%77 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40d…d654backed Under | 67c | 149.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Under | 51c | 99.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 69.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Over | 21c | 65.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 61.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 55c | 45.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 53c | 44.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 45c | 44.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Under | 52c | 38.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 2.5this page
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 0.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 1.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 3.5Over won
- IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gambia (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)IR Iran won
- Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)Gambia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.