Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9915a9a049f68db940c271f063be767189bdc7b5424ccc526b9e6c6aa3404e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 514.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 401.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 300.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 288.53$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 278.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 211.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 16c | 153.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 132.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 22c | 110.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 96.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 48c | 94.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 91.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 84.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 81.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 64.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 59.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 48.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 44.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 43.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 42.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 43c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 78c | 38.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 38.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 33.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 31.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 20.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.