Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8fc6df8a05dde83c41e14815dd74c044801f6bf688cf76aaa3d522a5b2854f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 791.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 223.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 211.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 192.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 128.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 64c | 127.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 48c | 96.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 89.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 78c | 89.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 53c | 78.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 75.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 73.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 70.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 43c | 68.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 19c | 64.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 65c | 60.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 59.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 58.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 53.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 44.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 52c | 43.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 52c | 43.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 41.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 51c | 40.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 37.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 35.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 49c | 34.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 34.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 32.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 32.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 32.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 36c | 30.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 30.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 63c | 25.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 52c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…faffbacked No | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.