Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x992138176ef2009faab13e8a72ca19447b0706626befe8fdaaa2d876a88fba31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 931.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 75c | 476.97$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 378.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 66c | 303.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 221.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 218.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 66c | 208$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 171.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 165.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 62c | 162.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 42c | 154.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 27c | 149.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 148.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 11c | 145.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 20c | 115.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 113.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 111.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 11c | 108.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 108.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 75c | 99.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 77c | 96.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 57c | 92.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 56c | 87.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 36c | 87.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 84.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 51c | 82.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 69.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 63.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 50c | 61.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 45.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 37c | 44.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 68c | 39.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 38.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 36c | 38.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 35.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 22.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…f291backed Yes | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.