F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9938ef176a7706058bff0587d39af1b3767e06ecb912883fda96cde524cd7f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 46c | 3,460$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.83 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 56c | 2,104$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.33 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed No | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c947backed Yes | 54c | 212.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Yes | 57c | 159.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…94b4backed No | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 54c | 110.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yes | 54c | 92.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 47c | 79.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…a73cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6eeebacked Yes | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 57c | 33.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.