Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99490209399914d89e5faba508e8c06d67e4d00be8b8ff38da8860b4ed0a245c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, No Hoodwink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked No Hoodwink | 57c | 4,796$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.82 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 4,732$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.39 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 4,056$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.95 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 3,802$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.76 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…d6d5backed Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 1,595$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.82 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked No Hoodwink | 62c | 911.2$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.86 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed No Hoodwink | 35c | 900$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed No Hoodwink | 27c | 835.03$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.43 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 728.08$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.39 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 691.07$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.55 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 593.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 555$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 552.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.26 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No Hoodwink | 55c | 518.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 491.28$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 385.68$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 375.13$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.19 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 370.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 369.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.62 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 351.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…df55backed No Hoodwink | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…ad6ebacked No Hoodwink | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…0ac2backed No Hoodwink | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed No Hoodwink | 33c | 198.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 183.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 181.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed No Hoodwink | 51c | 176.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…797fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 162.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked No Hoodwink | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed No Hoodwink | 64c | 138.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed No Hoodwink | 58c | 94.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed No Hoodwink | 44c | 94.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 81.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No Hoodwink | 46c | 74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed No Hoodwink | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…f7e5backed No Hoodwink | 52c | 63.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…e2eabacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 55.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed No Hoodwink | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No Hoodwink | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed No Hoodwink | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 26.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No Hoodwink | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsNo Hoodwink won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 WinnerNo Hoodwink won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.